Wrong to ignore climate change
The authors are with Raincoast Conservation Foundation, where Paquet is senior scientist, Genovali the executive director and MacDuffee is a biologist.
Given the intense influence of climate on the natural environment, as formal interveners in the Northern Gateway federal review process, we at Raincoast Conservation Foundation were disconcerted that climate change was not considered in the Enbridge Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment (ESA). The proposed Northern Gateway project would see a 1,170-kilometre twin pipeline constructed from Alberta's tarsands to the north coast of British Columbia, where very large crude carriers (VLCC) would ship diluted bitumen to offshore markets in China and the United States.
According to the journal Nature, "Canada's tarsands stand out in a ranking of total greenhouse gas emissions associated with different types of oil."
Moreover, in light of the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, this oversight, deliberate or unintended, is more dismaying by the day.
Climate change directly affects key aspects of the project assessment, including underlying assumptions, results, interpretations, conclusions, and analyses of risk.
For example, an increased risk of flooding resulting from warmer temperatures and higher rainfall, which climate models predict for the west coast, also means an increased risk of exposed pipelines.
Ignoring the influence of climate change is a critical omission that further undermines the credibility and usefulness of an already flawed Enbridge ESA for decision-making.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that climate change poses a major threat to biodiversity and human livelihoods. It also states the current concentration and rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere exceed that of the last 420,000 years. Climate change influences abiotic components such as glaciers, rivers, lakes and oceans, which in turn drive changes in the physical landscape and biota that are linked to them.
A new study by an international team of scientists and published in Nature Climate Change has found that many fish and plankton are relocating towards the poles at an astonishing rate of hundreds of kilometres per decade in response to climate change.
Human-caused warming already has influenced many physical and biological systems. The IPCC predicts that resilience of many ecosystems will be exceeded within this century by an unprecedented combination of changing climate and subsequent disturbances, combined with land-use change, pollution and over exploitation of resources.
Accordingly, the IPCC forecasts an increased risk of species extinctions as global temperatures rise.
Habitat fragmentation caused by large-scale resource extraction, such as industrial forestry, coupled with global climate change, could spell the decline or end of untold numbers of species.
The influence of climate change on forest ecosystems may cause species ranges to shift in elevation and latitude - some expanding and some shrinking. A recent report on climate change impacts in California by the state's Environmental Protection Agency reveals approximately half the species of small mammals in Yosemite National Park have now moved their habitat ranges to higher elevations.
Summertime stream temperatures, seasonal low flows, and changes in peak and base flows are presently changing because of climate disruption.
Rising water temperatures and reduced stream flow will become increasingly severe later in the 21st century. The Pacific Salmon Commission recently announced that Fraser River discharge was roughly 25 per cent lower and temperature was 1.4 degrees C higher than average for this date.
The combined effects of higher stream temperatures and reduced flows in the summer and more flooding in the winter does not bode well for the survival of many B.C. salmon populations. These conditions are stressful, if not intolerable, for young salmon that rely on freshwater habitat in the summer or adults that have to migrate upstream.
Increased winter flooding will also carry away eggs and salmon larvae.
The astoundingly fast changes that are now occurring show that long-relied upon approaches to static environmental assessment do not reflect emerging ecological conditions. Once stable and predictable habitats are now being replaced by moving targets. This creates unprecedented levels of uncertainty.
Yet, environmental change owing to climate disruption is completely ignored in the Northern Gateway assessment. This is such a critical deficiency that the efficacy of the Enbridge ESA is not only seriously undermined, but is arguably rendered effectively irrelevant in terms of its calculation of real world impacts.
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